Recently, we have been reminded of the importance on reacting to situations that effect a team’s motivation. The Houston Texans reacted in a positive manner when presented with the opportunity to win the AFC South. When being criticized for the “ugly” win, Bill O’Brien interrupted the reporter to remind him that they won the AFC South for the second consecutive year. Their motivation was in place to win.
We tweeted yesterday about this particular betting situation with Houston -150 on the moneyline. The betting line had already moved from -130 to -150 after Tennessee had lost. We realized the books were starting to factor in this motivation for Houston. The opportunity was with Houston winning outright, not the pointspread.
Detroit has been presented a similar opportunity, so we bet them +7 on the pointspread and +240 on the moneyline.
The betting situation unveiled itself when Tampa Bay lost in New Orleans. We had to watch the Bucs game to the very last minute, literally. The Pewter Pirates are turning into a must-watch team that is never out of a game. It was critical for Tampa to lose in order for us to bet in the manner that we had yesterday.
After Tampa Bay lost in New Orleans, the Detroit Lions will now have an opportunity to guarantee themselves a playoff spot with a win in Dallas. Talk about motivation. The Lions have worked the entire offseason and regular season to make the playoffs. They are one game away from obtaining their goal. A win in Dallas and the dangerous Detroit Lions will enter the Super Bowl tournament. The motivation to win this Monday becomes even greater when you consider that the Green Bay Packers are their next opponent. By winning in Dallas, they will be able to avoid the dreaded must-win game verses a red-hot Aaron Rodgers next Sunday (by the way, Thank you A-Rod for the easy cover verses Minnesota).
Now let’s look at the home team, the Dallas Cowboys. They have already locked up the home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Jerry Jones will make bank and good for him and his organization. The Cowboys have had an amazing season and are destined to make a solid playoff run, but how is their mindset?
Seeing Carr and Mariota going down with broken legs will force Dallas to factor in such an unfortunate situation. Whether it plays a role or not in their starting lineup won’t matter. The mindset has creeped into the team psyche. This game is of zero importance to the Cowboys’ franchise, other than getting it over without injury.
We won a close one on Houston in a situational bet and are still feeling the sting of going against one with San Diego State. It is always a good thing to learn from previous mistakes. Hopefully this time we are on the right side of a situation that is presented to the Detroit Lions, courtesy of the New Orleans Saints.
An additional nugget on this game is that Matthew Stafford will get to play in his dream game. He gets to face the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football in AT&T Stadium. The stadium will be packed and we expect to seeing him at his best. Stafford won the state championship as a 5-star recruit at Highland Park High School in Dallas. His motivation to play at a champion’s level should be in place.
We are betting three times as much on Detroit +7 than we are on the moneyline, but have the moneyline bet to be a nice kicker if the Lions can win outright.
Detroit +240 on the moneyline.