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Bullish on the Bolts

We’ll have to be brief today.  It has been rather hectic around here, but that is a very good thing.  Thursday’s game didn’t have the mojo for us to write about it as a strong play.  We did bet the Preds -155 and had them at 6-1 to with the Cup, but didn’t want to post an article with our lack of confidence in them before the puck dropped.  Something just didn’t feel as good as tonight’s game in Beautiful Tampa.  The Preds laid an early egg last night with Rinne giving Winnipeg a 2-0 head start on super soft goals.  Nashville couldn’t recover after the 2nd cupcake he let in the net.

Tonight’s bet on the Tampa Bay Lightning will most likely be our largest single bet game in Round 3.  Our big bet on the Bolts to seal the Bruins series was awesome.  TBL played the solid game we thought.  We expect the same type of performance by the Bolts tonight.

As Jon Cooper said recently, Game 1 with Boston was exactly what the Lightning needed as a wake-up call and it sure worked wonders.  We have been bullish on the Bolts since last Fall and have been dropping Stanley Cup bets on them when we cashed after some big wins during football season.  That being said, we pressed this bet recently after that loss to Boston.

That ass-kicking Boston put on the TBL in the 1st game of Round 2 was exactly what a quality team needs to propel them into the Stanley Cup Finals.  That series was over after Tampa crushed the Bruins in Game 3 to take back Home Ice.  Tampa won’t lose Home Ice to the Capitals.  It starts tonight with a complete game tonight at Amalie Arena.  The Bolts smashed Boston with 4 straight.  We are not sure if the Bolts can win 4 straight against the Caps, but we do expect them to send Washington home after 5 or 6 games(max).

Tampa Bay is the hottest team in the league.  We are long and strong The Bolts tonight.  Once again, this will probably be our largest single-game bet of Round 3 (in both conferences).  #GoBolts

Sitting on the Lightning -175 and might press it at a higher number, but we are in pretty deep right now.

Bolts have Bruins right where they want them… on thin ice

The Tampa Bay Lightning have a golden opportunity to close out Boston and rest for their final push to win the Stanley Cup.  We bet the Lightning yesterday after the line to today’s game verses Boston was posted.  Our first bet was on Tampa Bay -175.  We think there is value with the line.  We expected TBL -195/-205.

Home ice at this time of year is extremely valuable.   Although,  last night,  home ice failed the Nashville Predators.  The Preds were not ready for Winnipeg.   The Winnipeg Jets were focused and took the game to Nashville in the 2nd.  The defense didn’t seem to show up for the Preds and Rinne got peppered all game.  Game 6 should be a lot of fun to watch.  Hopefully this series goes seven and these teams will beat the heck out of each other before the next round.

Home ice is a huge advantage for those teams that have learned to thrive on it.  Tampa Bay and Vegas have been two teams that have excelled on home ice this season.  Granted,  the Bolts laid an egg in Game 1 verses Boston.  Like we mentioned with Nashville above,  the home team has to be primed for the game too.

Our founder worked with the Lightning a while ago(when Phil Esposito was putting together the pieces of the organization).  Back then,  Espo worked with a Japanese development company to put funding together.  Now with Vinik in charge,  the organization is financially stable and focused on the greatest trophy in all of sports.  This organization has put together an incredible team.  The Bolts have a solid goaltender in Vazina Trophy candidate Andrei Vasilevskiy,  an All-Star Front line and a solid D.  Now add in the recent play of Brayden Point.   Plus,  we liked the moves they made before the trading deadline.  The “Rangers South” looks like a good formula for the Bolts.  We expect them to represent the Eastern Conference in June(with a bet on them at 5-1 to hoist the cup).

Why do we like Tampa Bay so much?  There are a few reasons other than home ice.  The Bolts have found the formula to stifle and frustrate Brad Marchand so much so that the Boston All-Star is using a rile and juvenile tactic to disrupt the opposition.  This is an incredibly telling sign of a loser(not the person),  but his mental state.  The Bruins best offensive weapon has subconsciously shown that the series with Tampa Bay has been lost.  After Game 4,  we couldn’t wait for the line on today’s game to be  posted.

The bet was pressed when the news last night confirmed that Krug will not suit up for this vital game.  We love playoff hockey and if there is a will and a way,  these guys will skate.  His injury was strange and looked uncomfortable for anyone that saw it.  It was a bit of a freak accident,  but enough to keep Krug out and open a major hole in the Bruins defense.

Expect the Bolts to press the Bruins early and often.  At Vegas Sports®,  we like betting the moneyline,  not the puck line,  in hockey.  We bet the Bolts on Friday morning at -175,  last night at -175 and again this morning at -165 on the moneyline.

#GoBolts

Situational bet this Monday night on the Detroit Lions

Recently,  we have been reminded of the importance on reacting to situations that effect a team’s motivation.  The Houston Texans reacted in a positive manner when presented with the opportunity to win the AFC South.  When being criticized for the “ugly” win, Bill O’Brien interrupted the reporter to remind him that they won the AFC South for the second consecutive year.  Their motivation was in place to win.

We tweeted yesterday about this particular betting situation with Houston -150 on the moneyline.  The betting line had already moved from -130 to -150 after Tennessee had lost.  We realized the books were starting to factor in this motivation for Houston.  The opportunity was with Houston winning outright, not the pointspread.

Detroit has been presented a similar opportunity, so we bet them +7 on the pointspread and +240 on the moneyline.

The betting situation unveiled itself when Tampa Bay lost in New Orleans.  We had to watch the Bucs game to the very last minute, literally.  The Pewter Pirates are turning into a must-watch team that is never out of a game.  It was critical for Tampa to lose in order for us to bet in the manner that we had yesterday.

After Tampa Bay lost in New Orleans, the Detroit Lions will now have an opportunity to guarantee themselves a playoff spot with a win in Dallas.  Talk about motivation.  The Lions have worked the entire offseason and regular season to make the playoffs.  They are one game away from obtaining their goal.  A win in Dallas and the dangerous Detroit Lions will enter the Super Bowl tournament.  The motivation to win this Monday becomes even greater when you consider that the Green Bay Packers are their next opponent.  By winning in Dallas, they will be able to avoid the dreaded must-win game verses a red-hot Aaron Rodgers next Sunday (by the way, Thank you A-Rod for the easy cover verses Minnesota).

Now let’s look at the home team, the Dallas Cowboys.  They have already locked up the home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Jerry Jones will make bank and good for him and his organization.  The Cowboys have had an amazing season and are destined to make a solid playoff run, but how is their mindset?

Seeing Carr and Mariota going down with broken legs will force Dallas to factor in such an unfortunate situation.  Whether it plays a role or not in their starting lineup won’t matter.  The mindset has creeped into the team psyche.  This game is of zero importance to the Cowboys’ franchise, other than getting it over without injury.

We won a close one on Houston in a situational bet and are still feeling the sting of going against one with San Diego State.  It is always a good thing to learn from previous mistakes.  Hopefully this time we are on the right side of a situation that is presented to the Detroit Lions, courtesy of the New Orleans Saints.

An additional nugget on this game is that Matthew Stafford will get to play in his dream game.  He gets to face the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football in AT&T Stadium.  The stadium will be packed and we expect to seeing him at his best. Stafford won the state championship as a 5-star recruit at Highland Park High School in Dallas.  His motivation to play at a champion’s level should be in place.

We are betting three times as much on Detroit +7 than we are on the moneyline, but have the moneyline bet to be a nice kicker if the Lions can win outright.

Our Bets:

Detroit +7
Detroit +240 on the moneyline.