Notes & Nuggets

Teaser Tuesday: AFC West Winners verses East Coast Losers

This week our Teaser Tuesday will consist of the two teams that we think will be fighting for the AFC West Division title in Denver on January 1st, Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders.  This teaser also uses a successful strategy that we have bet for many years in week 2 of the NFL season.  We like to tease home teams that won last week verses teams that lost at home in the first game of the season.  Add in that the Falcons and Colts are from the Eastern Time Zone and will be traveling West.  We feel confident in the way this teaser sets up.

 
Denver and Oakland have solid home crowds and won the first game of the NFL season after falling behind, while Atlanta and Indy lost home games after leading their respective games.

 
We used the Raiders last week verses the New Orleans Saints in our Young Gun teaser with the Bucs.  Derek Carr engineered 22 points in the 4th quarter to out duel Drew Brees in the Super Dome and walked away with the win.  We expect them to press Atlanta from the opening drive.  Whether on offense or defense, the edge sides with the Black & Silver.  Specifically, watch the match up of Mack & Irvin verses Matthews.  Matty Ice will be melting under the bright California sun from the Oakland pass rush.  Mack & Irvin will account for 3+ sacks.

 
Atlanta didn’t address their biggest needs in the offseason.  We expected The ATL to select OL or DL, instead they drafted Keanu Neal (a safety out of Florida).  While Neal is a solid player, he has been sidelined due to an injury and will be of no help to Falcon’s defense.

 
Denver completes the second leg of our 2-team, 6-point teaser.  Indy was handed one of the worst losses that we have seen in years.  After taking the lead in the final minute of their game last week, the porous Colts defense let Stafford lead the Lions down the field for the winning field goal.  Detroit made enough mistakes in that drive (and game) to lose it.  The victory was all but gift wrapped by the Indianapolis Colts.  Now the Colts have to travel to Mile High.  Talk about a tough trip.  The Broncos are rested and are settled at QB.  We think the Broncos defense is fast enough to negate any edge that the talented Andrew Luck provides the Colts.  He is still very dangerous and can take over a game.

 

The backdoor cover (BDC) is vulnerable in each of these games.  The teaser bet gives us cushion to avoid the dreaded BDC through a garbage score.
We will tease the point spread down so that both teams need to win.  Sometimes we like to juice live dogs, but in this tease we are going with the home teams in Oakland and Denver to just win baby!

 
This is a 2-team, 6-point teaser at South Point.  We bet $120 to win $100

 

Denver Broncos  (pick)
Oakland Raiders  + .5

 

FYI, South Point is one our 7 favorite sports books in town… more about that list later

Golden Nugget Lucky 7, Week 1

Dare we call it the Lucky 7, but it seems to fit.  We are going to start writing about the 7 selections for the 2016 Golden Nugget Friday Football Showdown.  This contest is scheduled to start this weekend and last until week 10 in the NFL.  After Week 10 is completed, the top 8 contestants will advance to the next stage.  Technically, the top 7 contestants and the Wild Card winner will advance to the next stage.  The Wild Card winner is the contestant with the best winning percentage during the final two weeks (Week 9 and 10) of the Showdown. The amount of games to select is increases during the Wild Card weeks up to 9 games.

 

Hopefully we can be competitive during the entire run of the Showdown.  It will be more fun to have worthwhile selections the entire ten weeks of the contest.  There are some top dogs that will be in the mix.  They are seasoned veterans of the sports handicapping contest world.  That is their strength.  Like golf, our main competition is ourselves.  We will be more than glad to land near 55%, but we’ll always aim higher.

 

At Vegas Sports, we prefer to adjust our selections throughout the season.  Bad streaks and some full moons have been known to cramp our style.  This results in times where we have had to walk away for a week or two.  That can’t happen in the Showdown.  On the positive, we like that the selections revolve around NFL and College sides and totals.  The selection of games and options intrigues us while creating an opportunity to identify value.

 

Let the games begin.

 

21. ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS -9

Our first pick and our largest bet of the week (bet placed last Sunday at Wynn at -7.5 and -8).  West Point was our 1st bet of the season too.  Call us biased, but we always favor the academies.  We look for reasons to bet on Army, Navy or Air Force (not against them).  The Black Knights have some great advantages in this game.  First of all, they beat Temple as 14 point underdogs last Friday.  That was a huge win for the program and now those cadets are knocking on the best start to an Army team in quite a while.  Everyone on campus and at plenty of bases across the world are talking Army football.  This game is huge, make no mistake about it.  The next home game at West Point isn’t scheduled until October 15th.  The formula was successful against a talented Temple team on the road.  We expect another terrific game plan from this coaching staff.  Go Army.

 

93. Auburn Tigers -19

Clemson literally escaped Jordan-Hare with a 6 point win.  Arkansas State won’t be as fortunate.

 

97. Air Force Falcons -20

Another team that we have cash on and picking in this contest.  We like this one a lot and have plenty of reasons.  More about this team later.  It’s time to fly.

 

145.  Iowa Hawkeyes -15

We bet this one a little too early at Wynn.  Our ticket has the Hawkeyes -17.  The perils of the early bet considering that we could get them for -15.  The only positive thing is that there is no hook on this bet.  Iowa should roll covering the 17 in this big Midwest recruiting battle between the Big 10 and Big 12.

 

165.  New Mexico Lobos -12.5

This one could be tough giving 12.5 on the road in a rivalry game.  It has the markings of a losing ticket.  There is no bet here, only GN Showdown.

 

190.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

Our only dog on the ticket.  That is a scary thought, but the Bucs make a barking dog in match-up with The ATL.  The Carolina loss in Denver positions this as an early huge game for both teams.  We have a bet on the Bucs’ moneyline +140.  The defense will be more aggressive this season, while the offense has matured a full year under Jaboo.

 

217.  Houston Texans – 6

Part of a 2-team teaser with Arizona Cardinals.  We might bet this one straight up later.  Houston needs to win here to prove that Brock On was worth the big bucks.  Defense is the calling card to this team… expect a dominating performance from the Texan’s D.

 

As always, good luck this week.

Great Young Arms Catching A Lot Of Points : Bonus Teaser Tuesday

We’ll make this one quick, since it’s a bonus for opening weekend:

 

We are betting on two of the NFL’s rising quarterbacks that someday might face each other in the Super Bowl.  Their teams did play against each other in Super Bowl XXXVII.  In this teaser, we bet on Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Oakland Raiders.  Both teams are directed by very talented and dynamic quarterbacks with potent offenses.  The teaser bet gives us additional points which should keep the bet live in both games right down to the end(if needed).   Atlanta and New Orleans have defenses which will rank in the bottom third of the league, while Tampa Bay and Oakland counter with offenses that will rank in the top third of the league.  Advantage Tampa Bay and Oakland.

 

We think Tampa Bay can win outright and have a bet on the Buccaneers +140 on the moneyline.  The current Defensive Coordinator was last employed in the NFL as the Atlanta Falcons Head Coach.  Stated or unstated, revenge is in play.  Plus, word in Tampa is the defensive players love his scheme.  In our 2nd leg of the teaser the potent Oakland Raiders will take on an overrated, but always dangerous Saints team playing in their home opener.  It looks like Oakland will be attacking this year.  Carr has a cannon for an arm and he has one of the best wide receivers in the NFL as his main target.  Latavius Murray is a 1,000+ yard back going up against a defense that gave up 4.9 yards per rush in 2015.

 

The original point spread at South Point had the Bucs +3.5 at Atlanta and Oakland +1 at New Orleans.  As with most of our teasers, we look to meet or cross over key point spread numbers.  We bet a 2 team , 6.5 point teaser which meant that a bet of $130 had to be placed to win $100.

 

Tampa Bay +10

Oakland +7.5

 

Side note: we have written about theme betting and have been at it for years.  Seems like others in town are starting to follow our lead and using theme betting.  That’s fine with us, welcome to our party.

Anchor team: One of our favorite ways to position a teaser bet

We call them anchor teams.  This is one of our favorite ways to bet a teaser.  Usually we bet 2-team teasers, but sometimes we’ll bet a 3-team teaser.  Rarely will we tease more than 3 teams in one bet.  The value seems to get diminished with each added team.

 
The anchor team strategy revolves around one game that we feel will be a solid bet given the point adjustment from the teaser.   In week one of the NFL season, the Arizona Cardinals seem to fit the bill perfectly.

 
Arizona Cardinals have a great opportunity to win a big game verses a wounded New England team they might face in Houston on February 5th.  Of course, New England has a major disadvantage without Brady under center.   Add in some revenge by Chandler Jones and this one could get ugly.  The tough thing for us it knowing the Patriots have the potential to put 7 on the board fast.  They have a quick strike offense that can put points on the board in the blink of an eye.  The line started with Zona -4.5 (after the Brady suspension) and it was originally a Pick ‘em game before his suspension.

 

Watch for Jones to dominate.  He will be attacking the New England offensive line from the left and the right.  We expect him to have a multiple sack night in Glendale.

 
We love the teaser bet in this spot.  For those that know how we bet, we like teasing the line down to a team getting the W.  This week, our Teaser Tuesday bet includes a second teams that we think might face Arizona in the NFC Championship Game.   We are going to pair the Arizona Cardinals with the Seattle Seahawks.  The appealing situation is betting on two of the league’s best teams in their home opener verses AFC East teams that are traveling west.

 
As with all of our bets for Teaser Tuesday, we will only bet to win $100.  Since we have teased 6.5 points, we have to bet $130 to win $100.

 
We like Seattle to win and cover the 8 points.  In fact, we bet Seattle straight up -8 at William Hill on July 26th.  Ever since that bet was placed, we wished more bet on the Seahawks, but unfortunately the line moved.  This is where we like to pair up an anchor bet in a teaser bet.  Our decision was to tease Seattle down to -2.5 with Arizona +1.5.  The 6 point, 2-team teaser puts us into position to have Seattle below the magic number of 3 and Zona just needing the win.

 

Arizona +1.5
Seattle -2.5

 

Bonus:  We pressed the anchor team (Arizona) with another home team, the Houston Texans.   This will give us a way to bet on the Houston Texans opening weekend verses a Chicago Bear team that they should beat.  The point spread on Arizona has changed, but not enough to keep us from another bet on our anchor team.  This 6-point teaser bet was placed at the Westgate, so we had to bet $130 to win $100.

 

Arizona  (pick)

Houston (pick)

Golden Nugget Football Showdown 2016 selections will be released every Friday

We will be releasing all of our selections for the Golden Nugget Friday Football Showdown 2016 after the 2:00pm PST deadline to submit the picks.  The contest consist of seven (7) selections from a set list of college and NFL sides and totals.  The list of games will be provided by the Golden Nugget by  Wednesday afternoon.  Seven selection each week will be difficult, since there are times when we like to fly low with only one or two games in a given week.  It will be fun and we are looking forward to competing with some of the best sports handicapping talent in the world.

 

As with all our our information, there is no charge.   Don’t pay for mediocrity when you can reference our world class skill for free.  Our philosophy is that anyone can be a great sports handicapper, they just need the right tools and unbiased advise.

 

The 7 selections will be released every Friday at 7:11pm PST.

 

Pressing into ACC Power

It’s been a tough start to the college football season.  Thank goodness we hedged our Arkansas bet, but still took it on the chin this weekend.  More about that later in Notes & Nuggets, this is more timely of an issue.

 
We are in somewhat of a damage control mode and it started on Saturday night.  BYU cashed in the final seconds of a late Saturday night game at Zona.  Have to say it was pretty awesome to have a freshman kicker nail a game winning field goal in the final seconds.  It was a great game and fun bet too.  Oldroyd came through with a pressure-packed game winning 33 yard field goal in Glendale after the game looked like the Wildcats were going to pull it out late.  This helped to lessen the losses on Arkansas and Carolina.  We tend to press if we fall behind.  It doesn’t fit the ‘typical’ model from the crowd that use money management systems, but our strategy has always been different.  The majority of money management systems used by those folks never seemed to ever make sense to us.  Different can do well in this town, since sports gambling only pays to those who are contrarian.

 
Back to tonight’s game: Florida State .vs Ole Miss. The game is in Orlando, so advantage Florida State.  Ole Miss counters with the Number 1 draft pick of the 2017 NFL draft.  Cleveland are you ready for a quarterback named Kelly in your backfield?

 
The first leg of our ACC Power teaser was effective with Clemson winning outright on the plains.  This is the reason why we love the tease.  Clemson closed the game as a 9 point favorite, so they didn’t cover the point spread.  Our teaser took the line down to Clemson only needing to win.

 
Fast forwarding  to today… our teaser sits on Florida State +1.  The tease is in full effect.

 
Ole Miss is a solid program that has transformed itself into a national power.  The Rebels have cashed for us plenty of times and burned us when betting against them.  Par for the course.

 
We decided to press into the Seminoles in this spot. They and the ACC have an opportunity to get into serious National Championship talk with a win.  Again, all we are looking for is the win. Clemson is in and The Ville looks to be adding it’s name into the ACC Championship mix, let’s see how September 17th pans out.  The ACC Atlantic is slowing turning itself into the SEC West.

 
Our thinking on this one is that it all comes down the trenches.  We see an advantage on both lines for Florida State.  The offensive line will unleash playmaker Dalvin Cook, Jr. to dominate the game, especially on the right side.  We expect 125+ yards by the Florida State Heisman Hopeful.  Florida State will avoid having to put the game on the shoulders of Francois, so don’t expect a Jaboo-type debut for the redshirt freshman.  He will make just enough plays to keep the Rebels guessing. The talent in the wide receiving corps is deep and experienced.  Campbell wears no. 11 for a reason.

 

Florida State -200 on the Money Line

The rare College Football Triple Play goes on Saturday*

A rare phenomenon might launch tomorrow.  That’s the reason for the asterisk.

The college football Triple Play looms this Saturday.  We haven’t seen one of these in years.  They are rare, but fun.  Unfortunately, there is not additional compensation for the risk, the reward is in the execution.  For those of you that don’t know, this is when we bet three bets on one game.  We bet the side for the game, 1st half and 2nd half on the same team.  This team must be dominant throughout the entire game.

There will be no letting off the gas on this statement game. We are expecting a well executed gameplan by this team through all four quarters.

Stay tuned to @VegasSports…  you’ll be happy you did.

We will release this bad boy tomorrow morning on Twitter